Paris Poised to Top Global Prime Residential Market in 2018

Paris is expected to lead the global prime residential market in 2018, outshining decade-long best performers, such as London, New York and Miami, according to a Knight Frank report out Wednesday.

Benefiting from the improved economic and political outlook in the Eurozone, luxury home prices in the French capital are likely to grow 9% next year, according to Knight Frank’s annual global prime residential forecast.

Hong Kong, Berlin and Sydney have a three-way tie for second place, with an estimated price growth of 7% per annum. Singapore and Madrid have an equal standing at fifth place with annual price growth of 5%.

More:Hong Kong Home Prices Expected to Soar in 2018

"In the case of Berlin and Madrid, relatively low pricing, compared to other key European cities, combined with the delivery of higher-grade new units, is generating international interest—especially from investors," Kate Everett-Allen, head of international residential research at Knight Frank, wrote in the report.

In addition to looking at price growth trends, the London-based global real estate firm has also reviewed foreign investment flow during the past 12 months, as well as major risks, events and neighborhoods to monitor in 2018.

Findings include:

Latin American buyers are favoring Madrid over Miami, due in part to the strength of the U.S. dollar. Berlin is high on most global buyers’ wish lists, thanks to its dynamic and youthful profile, its robust economy and expanding tenant demand. Chinese and U.S. buyers are most active globally, but for different reasons. Chinese buyers are parking their money in global real estate despite the government’s tightening measures to hedge domestic inflation and soaring home prices in China. For U.S. buyers, rising employment, an upbeat economic outlook and the strength of the U.S. dollar are behind the growing appetite for international real estate. While domestic economic performance remains the overriding driver of demand and pricing in real estate, tax, currency, capital controls and interest rates are also playing an important role in 2018. Major events that might shape the prime residential landscape include Hong Kong’s completion of the Express Rail Link, which connects Hong Kong to Beijing via Guangzhou and Shenzhen; Dubai’s Expo 2020; London’s £14.8 billion Crossrail project; France’s wealth tax; New York’s reconstruction of La Guardia Airport and the 2018 U.S. midterm elections; and Sydney’s metro network expansion. Los Angeles’s Baldwin Village and Leimert Park (ZIP Code 90008), New York’s Financial District, The Peak in Hong Kong, Jeronimos in Madrid, and the 6/7th arrondissements in Paris are among the hottest neighborhoods to watch in 2018.

Luxury prices in New York and Miami will stay put

Luxury prices in London, New York and Miami will flatline in 2018, causing these cities to fall to the bottom of Knight Frank’s rankings.

However, Vancouver, the only city with a projected price dip, at -2.5%, occupies the last spot among the 13 gateway cities the report tracks.

More:Vancouver Housing Plan Could Hurt Luxury Market

Both Geneva and Los Angeles have a forecasted prime price growth rate of 3%, earning them the seventh place in the ranking.

The shuffling of the rankings of gateway cities come as a result of investors’ sentiment toward risk management, according to Ms. Everett-Allen. Over the last decade, London, New York and Miami have appealed to investors as safe-haven markets.

"The next decade will see a new phase of lower growth as stimulus subsides, interest rates start to shift upwards and investors prioritize lower risk environments and income generation ahead of capital growth," Ms. Everett-Allen wrote in the report.