The majority of real estate experts who responded to a Mansion Global survey on the U.S. election said that Hillary Clinton becoming the next president would be the best outcome for the luxury property industry.
With U.S. voters preparing to go to the polls Tuesday to elect the country’s next president, Mansion Global conducted an anonymous, unscientific poll of brokers, listings agents and other industry experts about which candidate they believe would be more beneficial for the luxury residential real estate market on a global scale.
We extended this poll, which was conducted in the week commencing Oct. 24, to those within the industry throughout the world, not just in the U.S., and received 35 responses from experts based in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, London and Sydney, among other cities.
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Overall, 83% of respondents favored Mrs. Clinton as the best person for the luxury real estate industry, while 17% opted for Donald Trump.
Of those who selected Mrs. Clinton, these were some of the reasons provided:
— "Her clear experience on the national and international level will provide the sense of certainty that the market needs. Donald Trump is viewed by me and many others as such a 'Wild Card’ that he will create an enormous sense of uncertainty here and abroad and that is never good for the global luxury real estate market."
— "She has been a politician for over 30 years in which time she has forged many relationships. She knows how to navigate internationally with diplomacy and understands how important these relationships are to keep our economy stable and growing."
— "Because everyone will benefit by having a smart, strong experienced level-headed leader."
— "The global markets are looking to the U.S. to have a candidate that offers stability to the rest of the world. The global audience of real estate buyers is diverse and it is very important that this group feels welcome investing in the United States."
Those who favored Mr. Trump said:
— "First, Donald will lower the tax rate and encourage business spending and keep money inside the U.S. Secondly, he will enforce law and order and keep the country safe and stable. Last but not least, he is a real estate mogul, and he understand how the market works and how to be successful in this market."
— "He is the lesser of two [evils]."
— "Business savvy. Knowledge of the real estate market."
— "He knows how to invest, build and create businesses that thrive and these assets are needed in our government."
As for what kind of impact Mrs. Clinton would make on the global luxury real estate market if elected president on Tuesday, several respondents believe she would continue the status quo, while some others said it would provide a sense of certainty to markets and investors.
"Hillary Clinton, by providing a sense of certainty in the global markets, will give comfort to buyers of luxury real estate that they can peer into the future with less concern," one respondent wrote. "Real estate is a relatively illiquid asset, so long-term stability or growth is an essential ingredient to keep the market functioning."
As for Mr. Trump at the helm of the U.S., respondents said they expected a lower tax environment, which would result in more disposable income. One person said that the "luxury real estate market would thrive because the wealthy would feel more secure that they won't be taxed out of existence."
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"He is a property man and a businessman and although says some controversial things he has bright people surrounding him," said another respondent. "He knows what works and what doesn’t in the U.S. Although it could discourage foreign investment in the US for those who do not agree with many of his views. Globally, if the U.S. economy remains strong, it will not make much difference. If the US economy stalls, it will drive investment outside the US and further cool the already cooling markets in New York and Aspen."
While both candidates haven’t said much on the real estate sector on the campaign trail, this is what we know so far: Mrs. Clinton has pledged to increase certain capital gains taxes, while Mr. Trump will retain the existing capital gains rate structure, while carried interest will be taxed as ordinary income.
In addition, Mr. Trump said he would eliminate the federal estate tax, while Mrs. Clinton promised higher rates as values rise, with a 65% rate on estates valued at over $1 billion per couple.
As of Monday morning, the Real Clear Politics average has Hillary Clinton with a 2% advantage over Donald Trump.
Update
• Donald Trump Presidency May Prove Beneficial to Luxury Real Estate Market Globally
• Trump Presidency Unlikely to Thwart Foreign Investment in U.S. Real Estate