Looking at the current market cycle, pretty much everyone agrees we’re in a cooling period. In luxury real estate, that’s meant that overpriced properties have faced a sometimes significant correction before they sell, that rents at the upper levels have softened, and that transaction times have lengthened.
But are we headed for rock bottom in the near future? Probably not, experts say, noting that just because the market has cooled off, doesn’t mean that we’re headed toward a low similar to the one experienced during the 2008 financial crisis.
"There are signs that we’ve oversupplied this luxury product," said economist Hugh Kelly, principal of Hugh Kelly Real Estate Economics, an independent consulting firm based in New York. "But I think the cooldown represents a slower rate of growth—not a contraction."
Stephen Kotler, the chief revenue officer at Douglas Elliman agreed. "The way I look at it, the market was going at hyper speed for the last three years," he said. But as of late-2015, it’s slowed down and returned to a more normal rate of growth.
"We’re not seeing the sharp drop-off that we saw last time," Mr. Kotler continued, referring to the 2008 dive that affected housing up and down the entire price spectrum. "People are adjusting prices and coming down to a level that’s realistic. But at the same time, we’re seeing demand and seeing an appetite for luxury properties that are priced well."
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With prices cooling but demand still present, Mr. Kotler said it’s likely we’ll see a market comeback before we ever hit rock bottom. But when that will occur remains to be seen, as tracking a market cycle isn’t as straightforward as looking to what’s happened in the past, added Dr. Kelly, who is also a doctorate holder and a clinical professor in New York University’s Schack Institute of Real Estate.
"The idea that expansions die of old age is just not right," he said. This cycle, which started after things turned around in 2009, is currently the fourth longest in U.S. history, and may end up being the longest of all, he added.
While market cycles can vary in length, they can also differ in terms of cause and what the bottom of the cycle looks like, Dr. Kelly said. While two of the last five U.S. recessions were triggered by real estate, this time around most analysts agree that if we enter a recession, real estate won’t be the reason. That’s because outside of select pockets (namely luxury properties in Manhattan and San Francisco), real estate has not been overbuilt or over-leveraged, as it had been in the past.
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Instead, a recession would likely come from causes outside of the country, like a geopolitical shock or a global financial market disruption, according to Dr. Kelly. Another possible trigger might be caused by pulling back on our international trade agreements, which both U.S. presidential candidates are talking about. But when you look at each of these three elements individually, "I don’t see any one of them derailing this expansion," Dr. Kelly said.
With demand still strong in the luxury sector and liquidity not causing a problem the way it did back in 2008, the market’s main job right now is to correct the overbuilding that has occurred for the super wealthy 1 percent, Dr. Kelly said.
This correction can be achieved by lowering prices or by pulling back on the pace of development, which is already happening in prime areas.
"You’re not going to see many more projects go into the ground in Manhattan, land acquisitions for luxury development in the Bay Area, or banks supporting development loans in resort areas," Dr. Kelly said. While projects that are currently underway—and on schedule and on budget—will continue to be funded, now that there are signs of overbuilding in this niche area, "I see that lending for new buildings being cut off quickly and totally," he said.
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Here’s a look at other news from around the world compiled by Mansion Global:
Britain’s ultra-wealthy love a good property teardown
The Daily Telegraph reports on a growing trend among very rich homeowners in England: buying expensive homes on attractive plots of land and tearing down the old home rather than renovating. Most of the vanishing houses are only a few decades old, the Telegraph reported. "We regularly see houses built in the 1970s, ‘80s or ‘90s occupying plots that are vastly superior to the standard of house that has been built," said Nick Mead, a broker in the Home Counties region outside London. (Daily Telegraph)
Increase in Singapore condo resales,,slight dip in prices
Some 770 Singapore apartments, known locally as "non-landed private homes" were resold last month, up 31.4% from a year earlier, according to local brokerage SRX Property. "High-net-worth Singaporeans and foreigners continue to see rising value proposition for luxury homes in Singapore after a prolonged two-year period of price declines. (They) have possibly returned to pick up units," said PropNex Realty chief executive Ismail Gafoor. Resale prices dipped .4% from June to July. (Straits Times)
San Francisco rental market finally shows signs of softening
San Francisco’s sky-high rental market may finally be cooling off, according to data from real estate data firm Zillow, which reported that San Francisco city rents rose just 5.5% in June from a year earlier, down from an astounding 16.4% rise between 2014 and 2015. "Listings that once rented in just two to three weeks can now take two to three months to rent," said Paul Hwang, principal broker at real estate agency Skybox Realty. Landlords are offering incentives, such as multiple weeks free rent, free on-site storage, or even free bicycles. (Yahoo Finance)
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Longread alert: Dickensian court case opposes two Boston landowners
Art dealer Jeffrey Horvitz and developer Evan Wile have been locked in a quarter-century legal battle over efforts by Mr. Wile to build an 11,000-square-foot house on a waterfront lot that was once part of Edgewater, a 1910 beachfront estate north of Boston now owned by Mr. Horvitz. The battle has included lawyers, helicopters and port-a-potties in what may be the oldest active residential dispute in Massachusetts Land Court. The Boston Globe has the story in a 7,000-word opus. (Boston Globe)
Dubai real estate prices keep falling, along with exchange rates and oil prices
For the sixth straight quarter, prices for residential real estate have fallen in Dubai, with average sale prices down 2 percent quarter-to-quarter and 12% from year-to-year. Luxury homes saw the steepest drops, according to a report by real estate consultant CBRE. An oversupply of luxury apartments is exacerbated by a stronger dollar and weak energy prices, which have reduced the number of expats living in the Gulf emirate, and reduced housing allowances for those who do stay. (Gulf Business)
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At sea, floating houses want to be Dubai’s next residential luxury
One Dubai-based firm says it’s already building floating luxury homes it calls "Seahorses," which offer underwater bedrooms with a view of marine life and coral reefs at a starting price of $3.2 million. A Dutch firm says it will offer its own floating houses at a Dubai real estate exhibition next month. Zawya has renderings of one upscale houseboat. (Zawya)