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U.K. House Price Sentiment is Positive, But Predictions are Modest

The index fell slightly from last month

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British households felt the value of their homes increased in October, the third consecutive month of positive views following Brexit, according to an index measuring household sentiment in the U.K. housing market.

The House Price Sentiment Index, or HPSI, now stands at 55.7, according to global real estate consultancy Knight Frank and data firm IHS Markit, who released the survey results on Friday.

This is the third month in a row that house price sentiment was positive following the British referendum to leave the European Union in June, though the index fell slightly since last month. September’s reading was 56.9.

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More than one in six of the 1,500 households surveyed said that their home value had risen over the last month, while 7% said that prices had fallen.

Back in July, immediately following the Brexit vote, the index dropped below 50 for the first time since February 2013. Any figure under 50 indicates that prices are falling, while a reading over 50 indicates that prices are moving upward.

The sustained recovery in sentiment shows that households are moving past the post-referendum jitters of the summer, helped by ultralow interest rates, said Tim Moore, senior economist at IHS Markit.

"Lower interest rates and stable mortgage availability have acted as shock absorbers for household sentiment in recent months," Mr. Moore said.

"However, expectations for house price growth are softer than in the first half of 2016, suggesting that affordability constraints and Brexit uncertainty are still putting the brakes on price momentum," he said.

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The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, also remained positive but slid slightly from September to 62.9. The future HPSI was 64.7 in September.

The survey showed U.K. households were still upbeat, but expected more modest growth over the next 12 months than they did in September. The southwest of England has seen the biggest rebound in confidence, with the future index swinging from a post-Brexit low of 51.7 in July to 70.8 in October.