The devalued pound post-Brexit is making many international property investors in search of bargains consider a purchase in the U.K. But is it really the best time to jump into Britain’s residential market?
“It depends on your appetite for risk,” said Adrian Masters, chair of the Department of Economics at the State University of New York at Albany.
For the fearless, he said, it might indeed be a good time to buy, as a weaker pound makes properties in the U.K. cheaper for would-be buyers rich in dollars. The pound fell to a three-decade low against the greenback after 52% of U.K. voters chose last week to leave the European Union.
Investors with available cash and an appetite for risk could get ahead of the more conservative competition in the case home prices go up again and there are no more bargains, Mr. Masters said. Still, he recommends proceeding with caution.
The immediate reduction in U.K. home prices as a result of the pound devaluation could be tempting for investors who were already considering a purchase before the Brexit referendum. However, acting too soon could make them actually miss even bigger sales.
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“I try not to use currency as the factor to invest, for real estate is a long-term investment and exchange rates will move up and down during the holding period of any property overseas,” said Lief Simon, co-founder of Live and Invest Overseas based in Panama City, Panama, an online source of information on living, retiring and investing overseas.
After its initial deep fall and as uncertainty around Brexit eases, the pound has slowly regained some ground. On Wednesday it was up 1.2% against the dollar, at $1.3505.
“If you are looking to buy now, the currency is in your favor, but if you are looking to buy in a year from now, the supply-demand ratio might change,” said Mr. Simon, who has invested in real estate internationally, including Colombia, where he bought an apartment in 2010.
As corporations consider new European hubs, jobs might be relocated outside of London, which would, in turn, force many homeowners to put their properties on the market, adding to the market’s supply. An increased residential inventory, especially if it is higher than the demand, could result in even lower home prices at that point.
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Mr. Masters also warns about potential political turmoil in the U.K. Britain’s EU exit is a two-year process that won’t officially start until the U.K. government invokes Article 50 of the EU Treaty.
“We don’t know how it is going to play out yet,” he said.
Masters recommends conservative investors wait until at least a new British Prime Minister is installed and a new administration settles in. Prime Minister Cameron is expected to step down within the next few months.